Putin's fatal error

Russia has shot itself in the foot by invading Ukraine

Putin's invasion of Ukraine comes as no surprise to those who've been following the development of events in that region . It was only a matter of when to invade and not if to ivade. What is in serious doubt is the wisdom of such an invasion. In the long term president Putin particularly and Russia as a nation stands to lose more than he would gain by invading and occupying Ukraine. The gamble may not pay. Total victory over Ukraine and the complete subjugation of its people, which appears to be Putin's main objective, cannot be assured solely by Russia's military capability . Not in today's world.

To gain a better understanding of Putin's approach to international affairs and perhaps catch a glimpse of his global objectives, it is important to note his past as a former KGB officer in the now fallen Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (the USSR); a super power empire of yester years stretching from Europe to Asia with satellite states around the world. Then, the USSR was embroiled in a technological, diplomatic and military race against the US and its European allies to gain influence in the world culminating in the Cold War which at times threatened to become hot.

Putin was at the heart of the action at its peak. That was the atmosphere that moulded his ideological commitments and one may argue continues to influence his global strategic posture to date. The nostalgia of USSR golden years rekindles in him hopes of once again making his nation a global super power under his leadership. The only thing obstructing his expansionist vision is NATO in his backyard and a unified international community opposed to such schemes.

At present, the possibility of a hostile confrontation with NATO and condemnation from the international community seem not to be strong enough deterrents to his aggression towards Ukraine. It is either that or out of desperation for not having his way in negotiations or overconfidence in his nation's capabilities has made him to completely throw caution to the wind and launch a military offensive in free and democratic Ukraine. If the latter is the case then this are very dangerous times. Global peace and stability are threatened considering that Russia is a nuclear power. To remedy this unfortunate situation, the global alliance of democracies must respond to this aggression swiftly and decisively with extremely punitive measures or else other autocratic states and leaders with global ambitions will be emboldened to militarily pursue their global agendas.

At stake for Russia is its international reputation.It risks cementing its tag as a rogue state that does not regard the established international order which forbids the altering of national boundaries through military force. By not living up to its obligations as a signatory to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which guaranteed Ukraine's independence and sovereignty and territorial integrity, Russia under Putin with the ongoing invasion of Ukraine is signaling that its commitment to international treaties is of no consequence whatsoever. It cannot be trusted to live up to its word. This casts a dark shadow of doubt and mistrust in all its dealings especially with the west and with the rest of the world. What seems to elude Putin is the fact that the global prominence he seeks for his nation can only be achieved through cooperation with the community of nations and not further alienation.

The severe economic sanctions that will ensue from this reckless invasion of Ukraine will really hurt Russia's domestic economy and its economic interests around the globe. In 2014 when Putin ordered the invasion and occupation of Crimea it is estimated that sanctions hurt Russia's economic growth by about 3% totalling to a loss of about USD 50 billion annually. As the US, the European union and the global community have warned, the sanctions that will follow this Russian invasion of Ukraine will be extremely costly and unprecedented. With a failing domestic economy in Russia directly resulting from invading Ukraine, popular support for president Putin will be greatly eroded.

Another thing that may go awfully wrong for him is the capacity of Ukraine's military to inflict heavy blows on Russian forces. The military cost in loss of equipment and personnel of this invasion will be higher than Putin's invasion of Crimea in 2014. To come close to achieving its objectives, Russia has to wage a full scale, protracted military campaign deep inside Ukraine's territory which means its occupying forces will be vulnerable to counterattacks from Ukraine's military and citizen guerrilla fighters. As an occupying force in Ukraine, Russia faces an uphill battle in the battle grounds which is not just the streets and fields of Ukraine but also the hearts and minds of the world.

Ukrainian forces are better armed and trained by the US and NATO and have been anticipating this Russian aggression unlike in 2014 when the element of surprise worked in Russia's favor. It's not going to be a walk in the park for Russian troops. Just the way an ill equipped Georgian army inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces in 2008 by shooting down over 20 Russian fighter planes during Russia's invasion of Georgia, a better trained and better equipped Ukrainian military is expected to inflict an even heavier damage on Russian troops in this conflict. This war with Ukraine will expose Russia's soft underbelly.

If successful, Putin's military campaign in Ukraine has but one end goal which is to gain an upper hand at the negotiation table. The conflict can only be resolved through diplomacy. Otherwise, the war has no end in sight. The longer the occupation lasts the more costly it will become especially for the occupying nation which in this case will be weighed down by a host of economic sanctions and global public condemnation. With its global image in tatters and its economy battered, victory in the battlefield if Russia manages it will be pyrrhic and not worth much in the end.

As history bears witness, the appetite of populist autocrats for forceful acquisition of territory belonging to other sovereign nations is insatiable. Unless stopped in their tracks early on, they blinded by self aggrandisement and jingoism continue in the path of wanton, large scale destruction of life and property. In this instance, the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine triggered by Russia's invasion could have been averted if diplomacy in good faith was given a chance. The door of good faith diplomacy hasn't completely shut if only the warring parties can get back to the negotiating table and abandon their hard-line stances. Blood shed on Ukraine's soil will not only be Ukrainian , Russia by invading Ukraine has shot itself in the foot and is limping towards a very bleak future isolated from the community of nations and the global economy.